Friday Morning Discussion

Friday, November 23rd 2012, 5:49 am

By: Alan Crone

The cold front swept across the region yesterday evening with a few showers located near the boundary. A lot of us missed out, but some of our area received some measurable rainfall. Tulsa International reported 0.28 inches! Our next chance for a few showers or storms will occur Monday, but just like this last system, the moisture will be lacking. The higher chances Monday will remain across far eastern OK and Arkansas. This system will move eastward Tuesday and may produce severe weather across the southern U.S.

The temps today will be cooler than the past week with afternoon readings slightly below the seasonal averages. An afternoon high in the mid-50s seem likely along with plenty of sunshine and gusty north winds in the 10 to 20 mph range.

A surface ridge of high pressure will build across the central US and nudge into NE OK late this evening. This means our winds will be calm overnight with clear sky and dry air allowing temps will drop into the mid-20s for a few hours pre-dawn. Saturday afternoon highs will be in the mid or upper 50s with east and then southeast winds at 10 mph. Stronger winds will be common along the I-35 corridor and locations westward.

Sunday the surface ridge will slide eastward and south winds will return in the 10 to 25 mph range as the next upper level system to our west allows the pressure to fall east of the Rockies. Daytime highs Sunday will move into mid and upper 60s along with mostly sunny sky until later in the afternoon when clouds will begin to slide across the area.

Most model data supports a surface area of low pressure developing across NW OK Sunday and diving southeast with time into the Red River Valley region by Monday. The data offers differing positions of the surface low, but basically we're in the running for a breezy and cloudy Monday with highs in the lower 60s along with a few showers or storms across the far eastern third of the area. Wind will quickly change from the south to north by early afternoon and colder air will filter into the state Monday evening. Tuesday morning readings will begin in the lower to mid-30s before the morning clouds decrease rapidly from west to east. Afternoon highs could range from the upper 40s or the lower 50s with north winds in the 10 to 15 mph range, but most model data is now supporting highs in the lower 50s. I'll make an adjustment for this period and bring the highs up from 48 to at least 50.

Extended model data continues to differ on the next boundary, but the upper air flow will be conducive for another system to near the area by the middle or end of next week. As is common, very little run to run consistency has been noted in the extended data over the past few weeks.

Yesterdays high was 76 recorded at 3:14pm.

The daily normal average is 57 and the low is 36.

Our daily records include a high of 78 from 1974 and 1966. Our daily record low is 17 from 1970.

Precipitation for the year is now at 27.89 inches

Which yields of deficit of -9.94 from our normal average to date precipitation of 38.83.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning discussion-blog.

Have a super great weekend!

Alan Crone

Friday Night Football Forecast

Dry, clear and cold. North winds 10 mph

Game time 7:30pm.

1st quarter 39