Monday Morning Update

Monday, November 12th 2012, 5:25 am
By: Alan Crone

The cold front that swept over the region yesterday is continuing to move east away from the plains this morning leaving a dry and cold air mass in its wake.  Daytime highs will stay in the lower 50s for most locations and a few upper 40s along the OK-Ark state line.  Light southwest winds will prevail for most of the day with clear and sunny conditions.   

The upper air pattern should transition to a west to east pattern (zonal flow) for the short term before the flow buckles allowing a window for a northwest flow late in the week.  The GFS and EURO suggest a few fast moving mid-level waves will slide across Kansas Tuesday and Thursday but very little change in our weather will occur as low level moisture is effectively shut off from the region.  We'll see a few high thin clouds (cirrus) as these waves slide by, but that's about it regarding the short term. 

EURO and GFS differ regarding the next surface boundary for the Thursday and Friday time period.  The GFS trends would keep our winds from the south Thursday while the EURO brings a boundary into the state with north winds.  GFS then catches up with the EURO for Friday with an easterly component before backing the winds from the south for the weekend. 

The extended data last week indicated a healthy chance for rain and storms by the end of this week, but the last few runs of the models have basically eroded that chance to about a 10% opportunity.  I suppose I could keep some 10s on the board for the weekend, but at this point, I'll keep the extended forecast void of any probabilities of precipitation (pops). 

Temps today and tomorrow will remain cool.  Lows this morning in the mid and upper 20s will be followed by highs in the lower 50s.  Observational data supports clear sky today along with light southwest winds.

Temps tomorrow morning will also start in the upper 20s and lower 30s but move into the upper 50s along with south winds around 10 mph.  Some high thin clouds will be possible at times, but mostly sunny sky will be the call.

The rest of the week will feature morning lows in the mid to upper 30s with highs in the lower 60s. 

Yesterday's high was 71 recorded at 3:11AM with 0.81 inches of rainfall at Tulsa International Airport.

The normal daily average high is 63 and the low is 41.  Daily records include a high of 83 from 1999 and a low of 15 from 1911.

Our precipitation for the year is now 27.59 inches which is still supporting a deficit of -9.27 from the normal precipitation for the year to date.

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Have a super great day!


Alan Crone