Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, November 7th 2012, 5:23 am
By: Alan Crone

A weak surface boundary moved across the area last night and the northeast winds will circulate some mild but seasonal air over the area today.  Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-60s along with abundant sunshine.  Our next chance for storms remains on track for Sunday. 

The upper air pattern remains from the northwest this morning but is expected to transition to a southwesterly flow aloft by this weekend as a powerful upper level trough moves onshore near the Pacific Northwest.  As this occurs, pressure will drop near and east of the Rockies and south winds increase speeds at 20 to 30 mph over the southern and central plains Thursday through Saturday.  Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to surge northward into the state by Friday setting the stage for thunderstorm activity this weekend. 

 Model data continues to be highly clustered on the Sunday time period for a stout cold front to sweep across the area bringing a good chance of rain and storms to the region.  A few showers or storms may be possible Saturday evening to our west, but the timing would suggest the higher chance will arrive Sunday morning through early afternoon for most of Northern and Eastern OK.  The deeper moisture will remain south, and the stronger dynamics will be located north.  This may keep our severe weather threat on the low side, but some moderate to heavy rainfall may occur in some locations Sunday.   

The temperatures Thursday and Friday will warm to in the mid and upper 70s for daytime highs, but will drop into the lower 50s or upper 40s Sunday evening as the cold front passes the region.  Colder and dry air will reside across Eastern OK early next week before another modest warming trend will occur by the middle of next week.   

Our official high in Tulsa yesterday way 69 recorded at 4:15pm.

The daily normal average high is 65 with the low of 43.

Daily temp records include a high of 86 from 2005 and the low of 22 from 1991.


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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning discussion.


Alan Crone