As the map on the right shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, temperatures are running more than 20 degrees below where they were just 24 hours ago. The cool front that came through last night has brought a brief return to cool nights and mild days, but look for temperatures to be returning to much above normal again later in the coming week.
Unfortunately, the front was a dry system for us and our prospects for any significant rainfall are mighty slim during the coming week as well. Some energy aloft will be moving overhead on Monday which will produce a few more clouds, but it appears any threat of showers/storms will be confined to the extreme E counties and on into Arkansas. After that, our next chance of rain is not expected until later in the weekend…more about that in a moment.
First, temperatures will be chilly tonight with 30s for the most part to start the day on Sunday. Don't forget to turn your clock back tonight as well. Lots of sunshine on Sunday and a light NE wind should hold our daytime highs into the mid-upper 60s which is pretty close to normal for this time of year. Monday will start off with temperatures near 40 and a south or SW wind which will be shifting to the NW by afternoon. That will be in response to the upper level system which will be a dry system for most of us and will not have that much of an impact on temperatures either. Morning lows near 40 and daytime highs near 70 are currently expected with somewhat cooler readings further east where the cloud cover will be thicker.
After that, southerly winds will be kicking back in and temperatures will be warming back up, particularly later in the week. By Thu and Fri, those southerly winds will be quite strong and gusty and daytime highs will be pushing the 80 degree mark. This will create an enhanced fire danger situation once again. Our nights will also be warmer with morning lows near 50 Thursday morning and in the 50s to near 60 by Saturday morning.
The longer range guidance is still not in sync regarding the next system to push through the state and that also creates some issues regarding when/if our next chance of rain will be. The GFS seems to be up to its usual bias of bringing the next system in too fast and too strong which would suggest showers/storms on Saturday. The ECMWF is slower and weaker and holds off any chance of showers/storms till Sunday. The consensus so far favors the slower/weaker solution provided by the European model although cannot rule a few isolated showers/storms ahead of the system late Saturday or Saturday night. Will take a wait and see approach for better model consistency before getting too excited about the prospects for some rainfall, but right now it appears the latter part of the weekend could see a decent shot at some badly needed rains.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.