Friday Morning Update

Friday, October 12th 2012, 4:23 am

A chance of storms will remain this morning.  Some may produce hail.  Additional storms are likely Saturday evening, some severe.  Highs today will be in the upper 70s with breezy and cloudy conditions.

A cold front is positioned to our northwest this morning and may slowly slide southeast during the next few hours.  Scattered storms will develop across Southern Kansas and part of Northern OK as abundant low level moisture is positioned across the area.  A layer of warm air aloft (a cap) has suppressed thunderstorm activity during the last few hours, but this cap may weaken with the approach of a small disturbance moving across Northwestern OK.   Most of the storms could remain elevated and may not be able to obtain the rich low level moisture.  If this remains the case, the hail threat will remain limited early this morning, but a few marginally severe storms would still be possible.  If the storms updrafts manage to ingest the rich low level moisture below the inversion, storms would more than likely be become severe and would produce large hail and possibly damaging wind gusts in some locations.  Several high resolution models indicate storm coverage should increase between the 4AM and 8AM hours across northern OK as the boundary also slides slightly south.  The late start time compared to previous data also gives credence to activity persisting longer through the midday hours before dissipating by early afternoon.  While there will remain a slight chance for a storm during Friday night football games across Eastern OK, the focus this evening should be across the western third of the state.

There's always a chance the boundary will not slide southward, the cap will remain strong, and storms would remain elevated in nature.  Our forecast will continue to keep a high storm chance for the morning hours across the region near and north of Highways 412.

Saturday morning storms should be located to our west as the major upper level system draws closer to the central plains.  A large area of thunderstorm activity will be likely Saturday and Saturday night across the central and southern plains, and extending into the upper Midwest and Ozarks overnight.  Severe storms will be a possibility.

EURO and GFS data both support the main H5 upper level system to approach the Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska vicinity by late Saturday evening.  A cold front-dry line associated with a surface low to our north will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening bringing a round of storm activity in the form a squall line by late afternoon.  The wind profiles and other severe parameters suggest a few discrete super cells may develop along the line during the early formation of the event.  By the evening hours, a line of severe storms capable of damaging winds will more than likely exist across the region as it moves eastward across the Eastern sections of the state.  Current data supports this line clearing the OK-Ark state line around 1AM to 3AM Sunday morning. 

The pattern will support pleasant weather Sunday into Tuesday with mostly sunny and mild conditions likely.  The extended data offers two completely different outcomes regarding the next system for Wednesday of next week.  GFS develops a surface low across the Red River Valley with a high likelihood for thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Wednesday night, while the EURO is aggressive with a frontal passage Wednesday afternoon with very little precipitation and no surface low development along the southern OK area.  At this point in the forecast cycle, I'll side more with the EURO solution, but as seems to be the case lately, confidence will remain low on this portion of the extended forecast and changes are likely to occur in subsequent update periods.


OU vs TX:  Game time 11AM at the Cotton Bowl.  Temps in the upper 70s, cloudy, south winds at 15 to 30 mph.   A 20% chance of storms will exist for the last half of the game.  Storms are possible late Saturday afternoon and evening in the DFW metroplex.

OSU vs Kansas:  Game time 2:30PM in Lawrence.  Thunderstorms likely.  Some may be severe.  Game delays may be a possibility.  Temps in the lower 70s for the game with south winds at 20 to 30 mph.


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Have a super day!

Alan Crone