As has been mentioned on numerous occasions, this year is on track to be the warmest on record. But, just to show how crazy the weather in OK can be, there is a good chance that today will be the coldest Oct 6 on record followed by a chance of a freeze Sunday morning which would be the earliest freeze on record. So far today, the morning low has been 39 which is just a few degrees above the record of 35 set in 1932. However, that record morning low in 1932 was followed by an afternoon high of 71. The high this afternoon is only expected to reach the lower 50s; the record cool high is 57 set back in 1988. However, the low that morning was only 46 so no matter how you look at it, today is going to be one for the record books.
Cloudy skies and northerly winds will keep us from warming much today and there is also a chance of some patchy light rain, showers, or drizzle from time to time. The system aloft responsible for the clouds and what light rain we receive will move on eastward tonight followed by another one during the day Sunday. That makes cloud cover the wild card in forecasting the overnight lows tonight. Any brief clearing at all will allow temperature to drop to where a freeze/frost will be possible for the overnight hours tonight. In fact, that occurred in a few locations this morning where there was some brief clearing and some patchy frost was reported.
The overnight clearing will be short-lived though with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies quickly returning for much of the day Sunday keeping daytime highs quite cool and generally in the 50s again. There may even be a few sprinkles during the day Sunday, but no measurable rainfall is expected. Winds will be light and variable, gradually returning to a more southerly direction for the overnight hours. How quickly the winds return to the south and any lingering cloud cover will be the wild cards for overnight lows Sunday night. Right now, it looks like skies will be clear by Monday morning and winds light enough for good chance of a freeze/frost. Bottom line is that any tender plants you have out will need to be protected for tonight and again Sunday night.
Mostly sunny skies and a return to brisk southerly winds will produce a nice rebound Monday afternoon with daytime highs back into the 60s. Tuesday will be warmer yet with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 70s along with brisk southerly winds and mostly sunny skies.
Then, a more unsettled period will set in for the latter part of the week. A weak cool front should move through by early Wednesday morning with a return to NE winds and somewhat cooler conditions as daytime highs should be near 70. This system looks to be mostly dry with only a few isolated showers at best. Our winds will quickly return to a more southerly direction for Thu, Fri, and Saturday which will also allow moisture to quickly return. That will result in partly sunny skies, relatively warm temperatures with morning lows in the 50s to near 60 and daytime highs generally in the 70s. The flow aloft together with the front just north of us and abundant moisture should also produce chances of showers/storms on just about any given day for the latter part of this week through the coming weekend.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.