Let the roller coaster ride begin. After a very cool start to our day this morning, temperatures have rebounded quite nicely this afternoon with the mostly sunny skies and brisk southerly winds. We will keep southerly winds through the night tonight which will also keep temperatures much milder to start the day on Thursday. After reaching the 80s this afternoon, overnight lows tonight will be dropping generally into the mid-upper 50s.
Then, there is Thursday. The milder start and brisk southerly winds will result another quick warm-up until a cold front arrives during the day. The timing of that frontal boundary will make a big difference in how the day ends as gusty northerly winds and falling temperatures can be expected soon after frontal passage. The shallow, cool air associated with this front makes me think the front will probably be a little ahead of what the numerical models are suggesting. Right now, the guidance suggests the front will be reaching the I-44 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours. I would not be surprised if it is closer to the noon hour though and that will have major implications regarding temperatures.
We will start the day in the 50s under fair skies and southerly winds. As the front moves from NW to SE across the state, the winds will shift to the N and temperatures will start dropping. Would not be surprised to see locations along and NW of I-44 back into the 60s by days end after briefly flirting with the upper 70s or lower 80s before the wind shift. Locations further south will likely make it well into the 80s before the winds shift and the cooler air arrives.
Little or no rain is expected along and ahead of the front due to a very stable layer of warmer air aloft. However, well behind the front for later Thursday night and into the day Friday, there will be some light rain and showers developing and that will likely continue through Friday night and into the day Saturday. The best chance of rain may well turn out to be on Saturday. As you can see from the QPF map on the right, the amount of rainfall is not expected to be all that great but the cloudy skies, brisk northerly winds, and occasional periods of light rain or showers will make for a couple of very raw days.
In fact, both Friday and Saturday will have very short thermometers with daytime highs not much above the morning lows both days and the brisk northerly winds making it feel even cooler. The skies should be clearing by Sunday morning and with lighter winds we are forecasting morning lows in the 30s for Tulsa. That means even colder for the normally cooler valleys and don't be surprised if there is frost on the ground Sunday morning.
After that, a return to southerly winds and a gradual warm-up is expected until the next front arrives along about the middle of next week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.