Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, September 27th 2012, 5:41 am
By: Alan Crone

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorm activity has continued overnight across portions of Eastern OK.  As I post this discussion-blog this morning, there is no severe weather watches or warnings in place, and none are expected this morning.  Some flood issues may occur across south central OK where significant rainfall occurred yesterday afternoon and where some hefty thunderstorms are located this morning.   Some of this thunderstorm activity this morning is being driven by a convectively induced area of vorticity known as "MCV"  ( spin in the atmosphere) that is lifting northeast across south central OK.  The trend during the last hour has been for the coverage of the showers and storms to gradually decrease as the MCV is moving into a more stable atmosphere.  The tail end of the system has been the strongest and has produced a large amount of cloud to ground lightning. 

The exact outcome for the rest of the day is a little tricky, but the operational models would suggest additional showers or storms attempting to develop later this afternoon and tonight across northern OK and southern Kansas as a weak stationary front gets a shove southward.  But many times the subsidence behind a departing MCV can lead to a few hours of dry conditions in its wake.  Today may be different with moisture remaining abundant across the area.  I'll more than likely include a period of dry weather for late-morning through afternoon before increase the probability for this evening into Friday morning for portions of northern OK.  The severe weather threat, while not zero, will be on the low side today.

Friday morning additional rain is likely near and north of the boundary with the rain gradually ending tomorrow morning.  Additional rain and storm activity will be likely Friday night across the southern sections of the state as moisture from Hurricane Miriam attempts to move into the Texas region.  The last few runs of the operational NAM have hinted at some moisture moving back into northern OK Saturday morning.  The model also attempts to keep some moisture nearby for Sunday and the GFS is now lending some support for this solution.  The EURO, however, continues to keep the majority of the weekend precipitation across the southern portion of our area.  I'll more than likely increase the Saturday pop to 40% and may introduce a 20% place holder pop for the Sunday time period for weekend planning purposes.  The good news:  we're still in the running for some much needed rainfall today and tomorrow.  The not so good news:  some of our neighbors may have a wet Saturday, more so across southern OK. 



Today's temps should end up in the upper 70s or lower 80s with mostly cloudy conditions, but my short term track record is horrible!  The clouds killed my numbers yesterday afternoon and today I'll need the clouds to stick around for most of the day to stay in the park.  I'll not make a decision on the exact high until right at game time (5AM) but am leaning toward the magic "81" for the Tulsa area. 

Temperatures Friday through the weekend should remain in the upper 70s for highs with Friday morning lows in the mid-60s, Saturday AM lows in the lower 60s, and Sunday morning lows in the mid to upper 50s.  Readings next week will feature highs back in the lower or mid-80s by Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in the upper 50s.


The official high yesterday for Tulsa was 83 with 0.46 inches of rain in the bucket.  The normal daily high Is now 79 with the low of 57.

Sunrise today is set for 7:16AM with sunset tonight at 7:12PM.


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Have a super day!