Unsettled Pattern Developing Next Few Days.


Tuesday, September 25th 2012, 3:43 pm
By: News On 6


The map on the right is an update of the QPF map I referenced yesterday. This is valid through Sunday morning and as has been stated before, it does NOT mean that everyone will receive that much rainfall during the 5 day period. Some locations may well receive much more, others much less; it is an areal average. At least there continues to be the hope of some decent rains for at least parts of the state over the next few days. Also, the latest and greatest data now suggests that the unsettled pattern we will be in over the next few days will settle down just in time for the weekend with most of the rain falling between now and Friday night.

In fact, there will be some storms forming late this afternoon/evening and extending into the overnight hours and some of these may be troublemakers with a wind/hail threat. These will be most likely to the N and NW of the I-44 corridor in the vicinity of a weak frontal boundary now in KS that is trying to drop a little further southward. That boundary will hang around for the next several days and at the same time there will be a series of relatively weak systems aloft moving overhead. It is this combination that will result in a rather unsettled weather pattern right on through Friday.

There remains another wild card in this scenario and that is Hurricane Miriam now located on the Pacific side of the tropics. Miriam is still expected to recurve and eventually make landfall in Baja California and then the remnants will spread eastward from there. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding how far northward the moisture plume will spread and those issues will probably not be resolved until the system gets into a better observational data base which is still at least a couple of days away.

All of the above also suggests temperatures will remain above normal until perhaps the coming weekend. At least the additional cloud cover and some showers or storms around should hold temperatures somewhat in check with daytime highs well into the 80s again on Wed and low-mid 80s for Thu & Fri. At night, lower 70s are expected for tonight and 60s for the next few nights after that.

Today's strong southerly winds, summer-like temperatures, and high fire danger will be replaced by somewhat lighter southerly winds for Wednesday and a more variable wind pattern after that. The pressure gradient will be weakening and the presence of showers/storms will have a major impact on our surface winds. By Saturday and Sunday, it appears we should have a more N to NE surface wind as the surface boundary finally moves further southward. That should also result in more seasonal temperatures for a change, and just in time for the weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot