Monday Morning Update

Monday, September 17th 2012, 5:19 am

The main upper level pattern will become highly amplified over the next few days with the main upper level cyclonic flow anchored over the Great Lakes Region.  This will create a steep northwest to northerly flow across the state for a few days allowing a couple of cold fronts to move across or near the area.  The first boundary will pass the area this afternoon and the second may be near the area by Thursday or Friday.  These systems will provide a chance for some scattered showers and storms near the area, but tonight's coverage is expected to be somewhat low.  

The morning is pleasant with temperatures in the mid-60s with some patchy fog some sections of the viewing area.  Light rain fell yesterday through midday along the I-40 area, mainly southward to McAlester into parts of NE Texas.  We had a few sprinkles Sunday across NE OK, but the measurable rainfall remained away from the area.  Saturday morning featured light showers with drizzle before the rain shifted eastward into Arkansas for the afternoon.  The weekend was very nice with highs in the 60s and 70s!  

Our afternoon highs today will be moving into the lower or mid-80s near and west of Tulsa as the cloud are expected to become broken later today with some sunshine. Light and variable winds are expected for most of the day, but north breezes will pick up as the boundary approaches the area later today.  This front will arrive later this evening between the hours of 7PM and 9PM for the Tulsa metro, and then from 10PM to midnight for areas along the I-40 area.  A few showers and storms will be likely near the boundary, with the NSSL 4K indicating some post frontal storms are possible through about 1AM.   Our weather should be in good shape Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly sunny conditions along with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s and 80s.  

The data has been very inconsistent regarding the Thursday and Friday time periods.  Last week, the GFS had been suggesting an MCS type event Thursday morning with storms forming across northern OK and southern Kansas, and then moving southeastward with time.  This makes sense given the highly amplified flow aloft. This week, the model develops a small area of low pressure across Northwestern OK which provides a few showers or storms near this feature.  The EURO has a boundary just north of the area Thursday, and then stalls the front for a day.  Both sets of data bring the front across the area Friday, with the EURO offering a hint of some showers and storms for Friday into Saturday.  The model also would feature some up slope precipitation chances Sunday across western OK.   I'll more than likely stick with a slight chance of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday, and may also keep a 10% " placeholder" pop for Thursday due to some confidence issues.  

If you are a regular reader of the morning discussion, you know the extended periods usually lead to low confidence forecasting issues, and this week is no exception.  Usually, as the time progresses forward and we draw near to the days and periods of interest, observations and model output solutions converge to offer a high level of confidence.  Hopefully this will be the case later this week.  

Yesterday our official high from Tulsa International Airport was recorded as 74 at 4:59PM.  The normal high for today is 83 and the normal-average low is 62.  

The record daily high is 104 from 1931 with the low of 44 recorded on this date in 1981. 

Sunrise this morning will occur at 7:08AM with sunset tonight at 7:27PM.  

Our we finished with the really hot stuff?  I suppose it depends on your definition of "really hot stuff" but the short answer is "yes". We'll no doubt have a chance to warm above the seasonal average at times during the next few weeks, but that seasonal average continues to drop as the sun angle also starts the annual migration southward.  A return of the mid "90s" across Northeastern OK would be highly unusual.  But, it has happened before, and one day, it will happened again!



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