Friday Morning Update

Friday, August 24th 2012, 6:19 am
By: Alan Crone

We're moving into a period of unsettled weather as an upper level system located near the four corners area moves eastward by this weekend.  Rain and storm chances will be increasing soon allowing a chance for some significant rainfall across drought stricken areas of central Kansas and portions of Northern OK.  We're tracking an area of showers and storms this morning located across the western third of the state.  As this activity moves eastward, it should gradually weaken.  But a few scattered storms are possible later today across Northern OK and southern Kansas.  Later this afternoon and evening a few scattered storms may also reach portions of the eastern third of the state.  Our better chances will be arriving Saturday and Sunday as the upper level waves draws closer to the region.  A surface front may also approach northern OK by Monday morning before passing our area by midday.   

Models have been consistent during the past two days with precipitation forecasts indicating 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible across south central Kansas with lesser amounts south and east across NE OK.  Our forecast will include from 1 to 2 inches of rain through the weekend with some areas northwest of Tulsa slightly higher.  Locations to the southeast of Tulsa will receive lesser amounts in the range of .50 to 1.5 inches of rainfall.  No organized severe weather is expected but a few rouge strong to severe storms may be possible across southern Kansas Saturday afternoon.  The chance for severe storms across Northern OK will also remain low.

 The data supports temps at 850mb warming by the middle of the week and this would result in temps moving back into the lower and mid-90s by Wednesday and Thursday.  


The consensus data continues to support a slight adjustment left (west ) of yesterday's official forecast from the NHC.  A NOAA G-IV aircraft was able to get storm related data yesterday during a midday flight and this data was ingested into the 00z model runs from last night.  The early morning forecast track and adjustments will be the first run to include some of these data as starting points of initialization for the model runs.  Hopefully with the ingestion of these data, the models may offer some higher confidence regarding the track and intensity of the system.  I continue to remind readers (and myself) of the limitations of tropical cyclone forecasting including movement and intensity.  Many improvements have been made over the years, but the limitations of observational data and limitations of model data will result in track and intensity errors with time during the forecast cycle.  The exact track and intensity forecast will continue to change, possibly significantly, during the next 3 days.  Several days ago it seemed very unlikely that this system would enter near the west coast of Florida and move into the Gulf of Mexico.  But the track adjustments have continued to adjust left (west) and now could place the system moving into the Florida panhandle region or even southern Louisiana or Southern Alabama early next week.  I'll continue to post information regarding Isaac on my facebook fan page at


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Thanks for reading and have a super great day.


Alan Crone