Monday Morning Update

Monday, August 20th 2012, 5:32 am
By: Alan Crone

We're in good shape today with highs in the upper 80s near 90 with plenty of sunshine and light northeast winds.  The winds will shift to the East and Southeast later tonight in response to the next system moving closer to the area tomorrow.  The main upper level flow will remain from the northwest through Wednesday before becoming west to east Thursday and Friday and possibly from the southwest this weekend.  This is an important upper air pattern change.  The active weather pattern will keep a mention of showers and storms in the forecast at times during the 7 day period.  

Tonight another upper level wave is expected to move out of the Rockies and down across western OK through early Tuesday morning.  This will increase the storm chances for the western part of the state and we'll keep a slight mention for a chance of showers or storms for those areas just west of our area of concern.   

By Wednesday the upper air flow will begin to transition to more of a west to east flow and then may buckle to a southwest upper air flow by the weekend.  A strong looking disturbance is expected to move out of the pacific and into our area by this weekend and may be gaining strength as it approaches. This will bring several opportunities for showers and storms to the area beginning Thursday and lasting through Sunday.  This does not mean it will rain in Tulsa or in your area each day during that period, but it does mean there will be a chance of showers and storms across NE OK during that period.  The chances will remain low for Thursday and Friday, but should increase by Saturday and Sunday.  The EURO is the most bullish on the precip chances and I have based most of my extended forecast from the EURO plots.   

The normal high has dropped a degree!  This is a good sign.  We're now in the middle of August and the normal high is now 93 with an average low of 71.  The Sunset times continue to drop a minute or two almost every day.  The sun angle is slowly changing, and all of these changes point toward the approaching fall equinox!  Can it still get hot?  Of course.  But at this point, we don't see any major heat near our area for the next 8 days.   

Tropics:  The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance ( AL94) east of the Lesser Antilles.  This system will more than likely become a named system soon and could become a hurricane during the next 3 to 6 days.  The experimental and operational models indicate a favorable environment for intensification and this system may be tracking towards Cuba by the end of this week.  Stay tuned for details on this system.