Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, August 14th 2012, 6:28 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking a small area of showers this morning moving from southwestern and central Kansas into Northern OK.  The movement of this system is from the northwest to the southeast.  As we discussed yesterday, the trajectory of the system will keep most of the activity to our immediate north, west and southwest this morning, but there will be a chance of a few showers brushing the Tulsa metro later this afternoon.  Unfortunately, this does not appear to be a robust system and our chance for measurable precipitation is around 20%.  

The afternoon temps will be a direct result of the clouds and any precipitation that may or may not fall across the area.  Needless to say, the bust potential for temps today will be high.  We could be as low as 82 or as high as 93, but I have elected to go with highs in the mid-80s today with mostly cloudy conditions for the metro.  Any precipitation in the Tulsa area will be very light.  No severe weather is expected across NE OK but some strong to near severe storms may be possible along the Red River Valley later this evening and overnight as another small convective complex may form.  

The frontal boundary to our south will return tomorrow as a warm front.   A few storms may manage to make it into Northern Ok Wednesday afternoon, but we're going to keep this chance at a 20% pop with highs in the mid to upper 90s as the boundary passes the area.  Some of the raw NAM model output takes us back into the 100 to 104 range Wednesday afternoon along with south to southwest surface winds while other data suggests highs in the mid-80s!  That's a huge spread regarding model guidance for a day in Mid-August.   

The next feature will arrive Thursday late into Friday with a stout cold front bringing a round of rain and storms followed by cooler air for the weekend.  Morning lows Friday will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-80s.  Saturday morning lows will be in the lower 60s followed by highs in the mid-80s.  

The EURO is suggesting a very wet Saturday to our west, while the GFS continues to suggest a slight chance of storms by Monday and Tuesday.  I tend to follow the superior EURO in cases such as this, but the past month or so has left me little confidence in any solutions offered by the models regarding precipitation output.  The bottom line:  I'll make no major changes to the extended and keep it precipitation free until confidence in the extended changes.  

El Nino:

Are we entering a new El Nino phase this fall?

Good question.   I'll leave the seasonal forecasting to the really smart folks (I'm not one of em) but I'll post more in the next few days regarding El Nino.