Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, August 8th 2012, 5:45 am
By: Alan Crone

A few scattered showers are possible this morning and a few thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon.  Highs are expected into the upper 90s near 100.  

The fire danger remains elevated.  While the weather conditions are not as extreme compared to last Friday and Saturday, the fire danger remains elevated due to the dry conditions and low relative humidity.  State wide burn bans will remain in effect.    

The pattern is changing as the main mid-level ridge of high pressure will be centered to the west of our area allowing for an active northwest flow aloft to slide closer to the state.  This means a few disturbances will scoot across the area, including today, bringing a chance for some showers and storms.  The storm activity is expected to remain very scattered and I have opted to keep the chance of storms on the low side with only a 20 to 30% pop.  This afternoon scattered storms could produce some damaging downburst of wind due to the moisture and thermal profile of the atmosphere.   

Temperatures will be high today with readings from 99 to 102 common across the state.  Temperatures Thursday could briefly go back above 100 during the afternoon before a cold front arrives helping to lower the temps for the weekend. The readings Friday may end up being very pleasant with morning lows in the upper 60s and highs in the lower 90s.  

We're also looking at another better chance of showers and storms for the later part of the weekend as the upper level pattern will sharpen allowing for a more pronounced northwest to north flow across the eastern OK area.  A few strong disturbances will move across the area including Saturday evening into Sunday, and possibly Sunday night into Monday allowing for the potential for a complex of storms to cross the area.  The data could easily "flip" with new model runs on a day by day basis.  Therefore, we're going to be very conservative to "start" this probability for the Sunday and Monday period, but we're really hoping to raise the pops with each daily update.  

The temperatures for early next week may be cooler than our current forecast, but we have opted to stay on the high side for the past few cycles and for the next few cycles.  The 850 temps should level off around 20 to 22c early next week but the exact outcome of the precipitation forecast will have a big impact on the daily max temp forecast.  Bottom line:  the Monday and Tuesday high temperature forecast could change by several degrees.  Stay tuned.


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