Notice the following quote from my blog a week ago today: "Bottom line is this coming week looks to not only be the hottest of this summer, but may turn out to be one of the hottest of any summer. Ever! And that is saying something." So, how did this past week turn out you ask? Well here are the statistics: from Sun-Fri the average temperature was 97.8. The previous hottest comparable period was Aug 8-13 of 1936 which averaged 97.5 and those days in 1936 set the record which still stands in which the daytime high was at or above 110 each day! This past week was not that hot for each afternoon, but the record morning lows we set just about every morning more than made up for that. In fact, this past Tuesday, July 31 now stands alone in the record books as the hottest day ever! The morning low was a record 88 and the afternoon high was a record 112 which gives us an average temperature for the day of an even 100; that has never happened before. Sure wish I had been wrong about last week!
By the way, our record setting streak will continue through the day today as we have started the day off with a record warm morning low and will be close to setting another record this afternoon.
So, is there any relief in sight? Yes and no. Yes in the sense that we will be getting a bit of a break in the heat, particularly at night, but no in that the drought will continue as our rain chances are just not looking all that great.
A cool front, and I use the term loosely, will be moving across the state during the overnight hours tonight and through SE OK during the morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday. Ahead of that front, we will have SW winds of 15-25 mph today, minimum relative humidity levels dropping to near 20% and possibly less, and an extremely high fire danger. As mentioned, look for daytime highs to be well over 100 and may even break the record of 111 on this date. Since the winds will be veering to the SW ahead of the front, that means there will be very little convergence along the front itself which tends to minimize the shower/storm activity along the front. There will be some showers/storms, but right now the chances appear to only be around the 20% level for the overnight hours and into Sunday morning.
After that we do get a bit of a break with the more N to NE surface winds of 10-20 on Sunday and a continued N to NE surface wind on Monday. By the way, that will keep the fire danger quite high again on Sunday, but at least our daytime highs will be about 10 degrees less with afternoon temperatures near 100. We will also get some relief at night as our overnight temperatures should finally be dropping back into the 70s for tonight and each night during the coming week. Unfortunately, our daytime highs will still be at or above triple digits this coming week, but at least not at the extremes of this past week.
Also, the dominant ridge aloft which has kept us so hot and dry will be weakening a bit and drifting further westward, eventually becoming centered around the 4 corners region. That places us on the extreme eastern periphery of its influence which provides a bit of a break in the heat and also will allow for at least a slim possibility of a shower/storm on just about any given day. Don't get your hopes up too much as the chances remain less than 20%, but at least the chances are non-zero.
So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.