Notice the QPF map on the right which is valid from Thursday morning through Friday morning. We continue to see a consistent rain signal from all the available guidance which leads to additional confidence that we will see at least some rain. As has been mentioned before though, don't get your hopes up too high. This will NOT be a drought breaking event, although some lucky folks could easily end up with an inch or more of rain in a short time. Referring again to the QPF map, it suggests a rather broad area of ½" or more, but keep in mind that is an overall areal average and does NOT mean that all of us will receive that much or more rain. As is usually the case with these summer time events, there will be some locations that will receive little or no rain and other locations just a short distance away that will get a good soaking. If you happen to catch one of those, count your blessings as it looks like it will be awhile till we have another shot at any rain at all.
Along with the showers/storms that do form comes the potential for locally damaging downburst winds which is the price to pay for the beneficial rainfall. So, a few storms may become severe with the damaging wind potential, along with brief, heavy downpours, and possibly some small hail.
This is a fairly narrow window of opportunity as the best chances will likely be confined to late Thursday through the overnight hours and possibly some lingering activity for the more southern counties into the day Friday. After that, our rain chances go back to the slim to none category for the weekend and much of that following week.
Temperatures so far today are running a few degrees above this same time yesterday, so triple digits will be common again this afternoon. For Thursday, temperatures will be a little tricky as we may have a little more cloud cover during the day, perhaps enough to keep us below triple digits before the showers move in late in the day. For now though, will go with 100 for the high although there is a wide variance in the guidance with some products suggesting only mid 90s and another product suggesting around 104. Much the same will be the case on Friday. Some lingering showers/storms should be confined to the more southern counties to at least start the day and cloud cover will be the wild card with respect to daytime highs elsewhere. For now will stick with temperatures staying below triple digits although some of the model guidance suggests we will be well above 100 once again.
As we go through the coming weekend and into the following week, the wild card will be the extent of the rain footprint from what showers/storms we receive late Thursday. If it is extensive enough, then temperatures will have a tough time getting back above 100. However, ridging aloft will be building back over the state during that time frame and that will suppress most of the clouds. So, any break in triple digit temperatures will be short lived at best. In fact, some of the longer range guidance suggests next week could well turn out to be the hottest week of the summer to this point. By the way, climatologically speaking, this is the hottest time of the year anyway.
So, stay cool, stay tuned, keep your fingers crossed with the rain chances, and check back for updates.