Monday Morning Update

Monday, July 16th 2012, 6:14 am
By: Alan Crone

Temps will move into the mid or upper 90s today with a slight chance of isolated showers or storms.  The mid-level ridge, while not as strong as the past few weeks, will become the dominate feature for the middle of the week bringing temperatures back to near triple digits.  A few isolated storms will be possible by the end of the week into the early part of the weekend.

 Temperatures this morning are running in the lower 70s in the rural areas with metro temps in the mid-70s.  Some patchy fog will be possible in a few spots this morning but this is not expected to be a major issue.  

A weak mid-level feature locates across part of Texas has resulted in a mid-level shear axis near the state.  This axis has provided some scattered storms for the past few days across the region, but this axis will be sliding more westward today and tomorrow.  This should limit the coverage of storms today compared to previous days, but some storm activity is likely to occur.  The mid-level atmospheric profile will support some gusty to near damaging winds with a few storms as they begin to collapse.  These down bursts are a common feature in June and July with storms across the state, including the micro burst that occurred Friday evening in part of Tulsa.

Temperatures may end up a degree or two cooler than our forecasted highs for the next few days.  We're sticking with highs near or above 100 for Wednesday through the weekend, but there's a possibility we'll stay around 98 to 99, but the temperature heat index values will go into the 100 to 105 range.  At this point, no heat advisories or warnings are required for our immediate area.

The drought continues to worsen for some locations across the state despite the isolated storms we have received during the past few days.  Many counties are not issuing "burn bans" as the fire danger is obviously increasing in these areas. 


Hurricane Fabio:

Fabio is a eastern pacific basin hurricane located about 695 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with sustained winds near 80 mph.  The system is weakening as it moves west-northwest around 10 mph.