Friday Morning Update

Friday, June 29th 2012, 5:15 am
By: Alan Crone

The temperatures will continue to be above 100 both today and tomorrow but will drop slightly below 100 Sunday and Monday as the mid-level ridge finally weakens and changes shape over the southern plains.  Temperatures at the 5k ft. level are expected to drop from almost 26C to about 18C by Monday before warming back into the 22C range by the middle of next week.  This will translate to some "not as hot" air for the middle of our 7 day planner.   Before hand, the Ozone Alert, heat warning, and heat advisory will remain.  

As the mid-level ridge weakens it should also split into two distinct ridges of high pressure, one located to our west and the other to the east.  This will allow for a tropical like wave to move into southern Texas during the next 24 hours.  While the impact of this system will remain well to the south, some clouds and low level moisture may attempt to move northward Sunday into Monday.  It's not impossible to see a few isolated showers and storms across extreme eastern Ok and western Arkansas during the late day periods this weekend into early next week.  The most favored locations would be from TQH southward to Antlers and locations eastward into Western Arkansas.  The change in local elevation regarding the valleys and "mountains" can also help to enhance daily upward motion during the late afternoon time periods with this type of thermal structure and pattern.  Interesting to note the EURO H5 plots clearly depicting a small disturbance moving up from North Texas into Eastern OK Monday into Tuesday.  This may just enough to crank out a few isolated storms to the east and southeast of Tulsa.  Once again, I will only mention this very slight chance and not place any probabilities on the map.  

The EURO data has continued to keep ridging near the state through most of next week and this would mean another week of upper 90s to 103 readings with very little hope of any major systems approaching the area.  Our forecast will feature triple digit temps from Tuesday to Thursday of next week after we experience a small respite from the heat Sunday and Monday.  


Data indicates our rainfall for the year is down about 3 inches from normal, while the month of June will end with only a small deficit.  What does this mean?  Our green vegetation will not last much longer.  The evapotranspiration rates combined with the hot summer sun will soon dry our top layer and we're going to be flirting with another high fire danger by the middle of July unless a change in the upper air pattern occurs.

 Drought conditions will be sweeping across the southeastern OK area and eventually moving northward into eastern OK during the next 30 days without some beneficial rainfall.  Drought conditions are already being experienced across portions of western OK and the panhandle regions.  According to the U.S Drought Monitor, 48% of the state is now considered to be in "drought", and for the first time since November, the entire state is also considered to be "abnormally dry".