Monday Morning Update

Monday, June 25th 2012, 5:19 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to summer. 

Our main feature of interest continues to be the dominate ridge of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This ridge is forecasted by all of the model data to remain centered near or over the state for the next 7 to 10 days creating a possibility of triple digit readings for the next 8 days along with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s near Tulsa with some slightly lower temps in the outlying areas.   

The EURO data is actually hotter compared to the other models and this does not look good for the rest of the week.  Temperatures in the 5k ft. level will be extremely warm for this time of year and would equate to some 106 to 110 readings but the green vegetation and recent rainfall will still act to keep these readings from moving across our area.  I do make note that some of the temperatures across western Kansas and northwestern OK have been moving into these readings this weekend, so it's not impossible that we're under forecasting the highs by a few degrees as the middle and end of the week approaches.  The EURO would have the worst case scenario with temps getting warmer by the end of the week.  We have gone with more of the EURO suggestions since this model has been very close to reality over the last few days but have tempered the highs down slightly by the end of the week. 

Tropical Storm Debbie:

The 4th named storm of the Atlantic season is going to be hard to predict.  The steering currents in the Gulf are very weak and several mid to upper level features are positioned nearby that may or may not have a big impact on the path of the storm.  Yesterday's data supported a track westward into the southern Texas Gulf coastal regions.  Late yesterday, model data began suggesting a slow northward jog into the southern U.S.  Today the models are somewhat clustered on slowing moving the storm northward into southern U.S, and then moving the system across northern Florida and up the east coast, but the track is still up for grabs.   Regardless of any one model track , this system will have no chance to bring needed rainfall into our region.  In fact, it looks like our storm chances will be nil for the remainder of the 7 to 9 day period.  

Ozone alert:

An Ozone alert has been issued for today and will more than likely be re-issued for every day this week for the Tulsa metro.  Ozone at the lower level of the atmosphere it not good while Ozone in the upper levels of the atmosphere is a needed element.  The weather forecast for the next week will lead to Ozone formation in the lower level of the atmosphere that may lead to enhanced respiratory issues in some residents.  We can help to reduce Ozone in the lower levels by delaying lawn mowing, commuting to work with others, and re-fueling vehicles until early morning or late evening.   

The national Weather Service will also issue a Heat Advisory today and probably for the rest of the week.  Morning lows will not drop off too much and with daytime highs above 100 along with the impact of heat index values, the potential for heat stress will be increasing during the next few days.  Please take plenty of breaks if working outside and keep hydrated with water.   

Thanks again for reading my weather discussion-blog.  You're invited to follow me on twitter @alancrone

and also on facebook….


Thanks again.