Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, June 20th 2012, 6:08 am
By: Alan Crone

Highs today will be in the lower 90s along with gusty south winds.  A few isolated storms are possible along and south of I-40 this afternoon.  A few more storms will be possible along the OK-Kansas state line after midnight through midday Thursday as a cold front slides across the region.

The isolated showers and storms across the Red River Valley yesterday afternoon survived a trip northward into the I-40 sections of our viewing area before falling apart with the loss of daytime heating.   Very few of us experienced those isolated showers but we may see a repeat today of a couple of isolated storms forming in southeastern Ok and sliding northward.  These showers would be few and far in-between but I will mention this slight possibility in the forecast today.

Later tonight and early tomorrow a boundary will enter southern Kansas and extreme northern OK around midnight to 3AM. This system will bring some storms into northern OK Thursday morning to about midday.  I am reluctant to increase the probability above a 30% pop even though model data suggest a slightly higher coverage.  The models have been too wet for the past few weeks and I'll stick with low pop and hope for a better turn out!

The mid-level ridge is still likely to form and slide across our area by this weekend bringing very summer like conditions to the region with highs in the upper 90s near 100. I'm beginning to think some of our area may see a few triple digits, but the recent moisture combined with the green veggies will help to knock the highs down a degree or two from where they would end up with a different soil content and ground cover.  I think this weekend will also be very humid and the temperature heat index values may exceed 105 in spots prompting the NWS to issue heat advisory for portions of NE OK this weekend.  Any advisory would not be issued until as early as Friday, or more than likely the morning of the expected high values.  

The ridge may slide slightly eastward early next week allowing for a weak back door front to slide across the Missouri Valley into NE OK.  No precipitation is expected with this front, but some slightly drier ( lower) dew point temperatures may make a run at the NE third of the state.  This may take the edge off the humidity, but the temperatures would continue to be in the mid or even upper 90s.   This ridge is expected to remain near the area for the first part of next week.