After a hot, humid, summer-like day today, the weather pattern will be more unsettled for much of the coming week. A cool front will be pushing through KS during the day today and gradually moving across OK tonight and Monday. By Monday night or Tuesday it will be stalling out along the Red River and hanging out down there for a day or two before moving back north as a warm front. The presence of the surface boundary and a series of weak disturbances aloft moving overhead will combine to provide at least a chance of showers/storms well into the coming week.
Today will be dry with just some of those fair weather cumulus clouds, a gusty S to SE wind of 20-25 mph or more, and afternoon temperatures that should reach the lower 90s. However, the dew point temperature is expected to be in the upper 60s which is in the uncomfortable range and should result in a heat index reaching the mid-upper 90s.
Showers/storms developing in KS late in the day will be gradually building southward into OK during the overnight hours ahead of the approaching cool front. Some of those storms will have a severe threat with winds/hail the primary concerns. Areal coverage of the storms should be on the order of 30%, but those areas affected will catch a heavy downpour.
As the front gradually pushed on southward Monday, mostly cloudy skies and winds shifting to a more NE direction will keep daytime temperatures in the 80s behind the boundary. However, for the more southern counties where the front will not likely arrive till later in the day, temperatures back into the 90s can be expected. Also, showers/storms can be expected near the boundary with about a 40% coverage and some of those will be capable of becoming severe with a wind/hail threat primarily. Although not everyone will get wet, those locations that are affected by the storms will have brief, but locally very heavy rainfall.
That front is then expected to hang around for a few days before finally moving back north of us by Thursday. That should keep us with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s which is pretty close to normal. There will also be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and chances of showers/storms for Tue/Wed/Thu. By Friday and on through the weekend, we should be back to a brisk southerly surface wind, partly cloudy skies, summer-like temperatures and only a very slight chance of an afternoon shower/storm to provide some relief.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.