The map on the right is what we refer to as a QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) valid through Thursday morning. It has a rather interesting precipitation forecast for the state with a relative maximum just north of us in Kansas and another to the south and generally centered along the Red River. If this verifies, those of us in between don't stand to get much rain during that period. By the way, this is an example of the man-machine mix as the basic guidance comes from a variety of computer solutions but the final product is man-made.
The reasoning behind this particular pattern is a cool front that will be moving through KS and into OK Monday, but is expected to stall out along the Red River for the middle part of the week before moving back north as a warm front later in the week. As the front moves through KS, the better support aloft is located further north so they have a better chance of storms with the initial frontal passage late Sunday and into the day Monday. NE OK will have a chance Sunday night, during the day Monday, and into the day Tuesday, but the better chances will likely be further south along the Red River as the front stalls out by mid-week.
Also, any showers/storms that can get cranked up will have adequate instability to become marginally severe with wind/hail the primary threats for Sunday night and perhaps Monday.
Temperature wise we will have gusty southerly winds for Sunday and enough sunshine to put our daytime highs into the lower 90s for most locations. The wind shift on Monday and the mostly cloudy skies lingering into the middle of the week should then hold daytime temperatures into the 80s before the winds return to a southerly and push us back to near 90 in time for the weekend. At night, a SE wind overnight will keep us in the mid-upper 60s to start the day Sunday and the 70s to start the day Monday. After that, we should be back into the 60s for the rest of the coming week.
By the way, the stalled frontal boundary will also keep us with at least a slight chance of showers/storms right on through Wednesday and into the day Thursday as well. So, for those of you still needing some rain, there is at least some hope during the coming week.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.