The map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, is another way of showing just how dry we have been this month. It shows the consecutive number of days with less than ¼" of rain and for many of us, that has been the entire month. Fortunately, we will be in a more unsettled period over the next few days which will give us a decent shot at showers and storms before the month is over. Unfortunately, some of those storms may be severe with winds/hail the primary threats.
A weak frontal boundary is sagging this way and will stall out in an E-W fashion across the state. Depending on its exact location, there could be a big swing in temperatures with E to NE winds behind the boundary and S to SE winds ahead of it. Also, more cloud cover is expected with the nearly stationary boundary in the area and along with a more supportive wind flow aloft, there will be increasing chances of showers and storms.
There remains a chance of a few showers and storms for the evening and overnight hours tonight, a slight chance for much of the day Tuesday and a better chance for the Tuesday evening and overnight time frame. Look for the chances to be increasing to around the 50% level by then. A stronger system aloft still looks poised to move across the state later Wednesday and through the overnight hours and into Thursday morning. That system has the greatest potential for widespread rainfall, possibly even some flooding rains by the time it is all over with.
So, it looks like there will be several rounds of showers and storms, a slight chance tonight, a better chance late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the best chance looks to be late Wednesday and that night. By the time it is all said and done, there is the potential for some locations to receive several inches of badly needed rainfall.
Temperatures will be tricky for Tue and Wed depending on the position of the frontal boundary, the amount of cloud cover, and when/where the showers and storms form. As a general rule, we will still be way above normal with highs in the mid-upper 80s for both days and overnight lows in the 60s to near 70. However, much milder and drier air will be surging southward on the heels of a brisk northerly wind forThursday. Daytime highs will only in the 70s for Thursday and Friday along with overnight lows in the 50s. That will not last long though as a return to southerly winds and warmer temperatures will occur in time for the weekend.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.