Once again, our day started with temperatures well below normal for this time of year, and once again the sunny skies and light winds are resulting in a rapid warm-up. We were already above our normal daytime high at 11 o'clock this morning after starting the day some 5 degrees below normal. The normal temperature range for this date is 59/79. These conditions are representative of a dry low level air mass which allows for the cooler overnight temperatures; and full sun during the day which allows for a rapid warm-up. The very light low level winds also contribute with nearly calm winds during the overnight hours and no moisture advection during the day as we have had light and variable winds for the last day or two.
That will be changing over the next few days as our winds will be back to southerly and picking up to 10-15 mph with some higher gusts for Thursday and becoming rather windy for Friday and Saturday. The stronger winds will keep our nights from cooling off as much, but the deeper, richer Gulf moisture which made our nights so warm that first week in May does not look to be returning anytime soon. In fact, dew point temperatures (which are a measure of the absolute amount of moisture in the air) are expected to stay in the 50s to near 60 right on into the weekend. That means the daytime relative humidity will be in a fairly comfortable range with minimum values dropping to near 40% during the heat of the day.
For tonight, temperatures in the 50s to near 60 will represent warmer conditions than the last several nights, but it will still be very pleasant for the evening and overnight hours. The increasing southerly winds over the next few days and nights will keep our overnight lows generally in the low-mid 60s and with the sunny daytime skies, afternoon temperatures will be generally in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s mixed in.
We are getting rather dry as pointed out in yesterday's discussion and our next chance of showers and storms still looks to be during the Sun/Mon time frame. A front will be moving across the state and will bring at least a chance of rain by then. This currently looks to be a relatively weak system so am keeping the rain chances in the moderate category. Perhaps the next few model runs will give us a better handle on the strength of the system and also the rainfall potential. Have to keep in mind that this is May and is normally the wettest month of the year, so something may sneak up on us yet.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.