Slight Chance Again Today

The warm front is located south of our area this morning but will begin moving northward later today with gusty south winds and highs nearing 70 across northern OK.  Some locations across extreme NE Ok may stay in the mid-60s. Warmer temperatures in the mid-70s will be possible across the southern third of the state.

 An upper level impulse is evident this morning to our west that could bring a few showers or storms to the northeastern part of the state this morning through midday.  Some hi resolution short term data indicates showers or storms will form around noon before moving out of the area early afternoon.   Some of the other operational models keep this precipitation to our northwest.  We'll keep our mention for showers and storms at 30% today and tonight.

The warm sector will quickly move across the central plains later today in advance of the major upper level system currently to our west.  We continue to watch this system in the observational and model data outputs and think it will have a chance of producing severe weather in the state.  The first part of the severe weather will occur today and tonight in western OK.  The Friday threat will mainly be confined to the central and western third of Oklahoma but all of our area will be included in the severe weather threat areas for Saturday and Sunday.  The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already placed portions of the state in the Moderate Risk category for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening, including all modes of severe weather.   Saturday the storms may hold off until late in the afternoon or early evening as a layer of warm air aloft may act to suppress storm development for a while.  But once storms form, they will become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes.

Temperatures for the periods through the weekend will feature morning lows in the 60s with highs in the upper 70s.  Strong south winds will be common every day. 

The EURO had been suggesting the major H5 system would close off and form another surface wave on the boundary Sunday evening.  This would result in more rain during the day Monday before the boundary moves eastward Tuesday.  Today both the EURO and the GFS are more progressive and moves the system out of our area late Sunday night into pre-dawn Monday. 

Slightly cooler air will follow the frontal passage early next week, including the potential for some morning lows in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday.  A weak upper level impulse may arrive Wednesday in the northwest flow aloft bringing a few showers or storms, but we'll keep these out of the forecast at this juncture.