Easter Forecast.

Easter Sunday morning should be in good shape for those locations N of I-40 as any showers or lingering thunder will be long gone by then. For those of you south of I-40, more cloud cover is expected for first thing in the morning and there is a slight chance of some lingering showers and maybe even a rumble or two of thunder. As the day wears on, locations N of I-40 should see fair to partly cloudy skies with just some lingering high level cirrus clouds. Locations further south will see a thicker cloud deck and just a slight chance of a shower or some thunder redeveloping late in the day. Temperatures will get off to a cool start with morning lows ranging from the lower 40s along the OK/KS state line to the lower 50s S of I-40. Daytime highs will be generally in the lower 70s along with a light E to SE wind of only 5-10 mph. All in all, a pretty nice Easter Sunday as far as our weather is concerned.

After that, things start getting more interesting during the coming week with several opportunities for storms and potentially some severe weather. The weak cool front that arrived during the day today will stall out along the Red River by Sunday. Northerly winds behind the boundary tonight will be more from the NE by Sunday morning and E to SE by the end of the day. Wind speeds will be light.

Monday will see a light southerly wind before another cool front arrives Monday night followed by NE winds for Tuesday. These shifting winds will keep temperatures on the mild side with highs generally in the low-mid 70s and lows around the 50 degree mark for early next week.

However, aloft a NW flow event is shaping up for later Monday and depending on the timing may extend into the overnight hours Monday night. These NW flow situations are notorious for pulling surprises, so for now am keeping the chances of showers and storms at 30% for that time frame, but that is certainly subject to change. The NW flow aloft together with the surface boundary in the area could also produce some locally heavy rains and perhaps some severe weather for late Monday into the night, so keep a close eye on the weather during that time frame.

After that, ridging aloft should suppress most of any showers or storms on this side of the state for the balance of the day Tuesday and into Wednesday. Cannot say the same for locations further west though and by later in the week, a stronger system will be approaching which will set up much of the state for chances of showers and storms. The timing, location, and intensity of that activity is still very much uncertain due to different model solutions. But, it certainly appears that from Thursday through the following weekend we will be in a more active weather pattern.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot