A Good Friday

We're looking at decent weather today which should result in one of the better days this week with afternoon highs in the lower 70s.  Light easterly winds combined with a sun-cloud mix will result in a Good Friday!   The weather will turn quickly later tonight and more so tomorrow morning with a complex of storms moving from Kansas into northern OK along with a surface boundary.   A few strong storms may form tonight across the far western OK area along the dry line with a chance of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening along the Texoma region.

The upper air flow will be capable of bringing a small complex of showers and storms to the region tomorrow morning through Midday across the northern third of the state.  I don't think these storms will be severe but a few of the stronger storms could produce some very small hail.  As the complex and front sags southward, the severe potential would increase across the southern third of the state into north Texas.  Hail would be the main issue with a few downbursts of winds.

The surface boundary may slide southward across our area tomorrow midday to early afternoon but the latest suite of model data suggests the boundary may reside across the I-40 to southern OK Sunday and may be slowly lifting northward as a warm frontal boundary.  This means Easter Sunday could support a few scattered showers or storms, mainly across the I-40 and northern Ok area.

The 00z models from both the GFS and EURO suggest the pattern may remain active through most of the next 7 days and this would necessitate a pop for almost every day of the 7 day planner.    But I've attempted to place a slight pop on the time periods that would bring the best chances to the immediate northeastern OK area.  Monday the storms may be too far west to impact our immediate area, but Tuesday morning a small complex may slide into the region.  The larger system will be organizing and moving closer to the region for the Wednesday and Thursday period with some severe probabilities for Wednesday night into Thursday midday or so.