Cooler Air

Finally.  The upper level low is moving away from the region this morning and we'll be in good shape today and tomorrow before another weak system approaches the region.  As I'm posting this discussion, we do have a few isolated showers persisting near the eastern edge of the cold core low, but these small showers will be exiting the state before a lot of you read this discussion.  Later in the mid morning hours, there may be a few showers moving around the back side of the low across far southeastern Kansas and Northeastern OK.  I'll not place these very low probabilities on the 7 day map today, but will make a mention on the air for an hour or two this morning.  

Temperatures will be moving into the mid and upper 60s across the northern part of the state with the lower 70s with northwest winds in the 10 to 15 mph range this afternoon before winds shift from the northeast around the 5pm hour.  I do anticipate some cloud cover remaining across the region as moisture in the 850 to 1000 mb level pinwheels around the back side of the low but some breaks will be a possibility at times from Tulsa southward.  The clouds may remain thick north of the Tulsa region and could eventually cause mostly cloudy sky in the Tulsa metro.

The next issue is a weak northwest flow aloft influencing the area this weekend.  This means any upstream storm complexes could have a shot of moving into the area this weekend.  Additionally, a weak surface boundary will also be nearby allowing for some lifting focus for a few storms.  We don't anticipate a big severe weather threat, but any time there's a boundary near the area in early spring we should be diligent of low level flow interactions and convergence.   

The actual chance for storms may be in the 30% range early Saturday and then again late Saturday evening into Easter Sunday morning.  The boundary will be near or just south of the Tulsa area Sunday, and this means the Sunday showers should be well south of the Tulsa metro.    The front finally gets a shove Monday morning and a surface ridge of high pressure will build down into the state from the north bringing cooler air to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.   Morning lows will drop into the 40s with afternoon highs in the 60s. 

The extended data, both GFS and EURO suggest a strong upper level system will be approaching by the middle to end of next week.  This would be normal from a climate average and the severe weather threat will be.  The early data would support a deep layer shear and sufficient low level moisture for severe storms for Thursday of next week. 

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