Storm System Soon

The above seasonal average temperatures will remain today before a strong upper level system will move closer to the area tonight and tomorrow bringing a round of showers and storms to the region.  Some of the storms will be severe across western OK later tonight and a few strong to near severe storms may be near the Eastern OK area Tuesday morning and afternoon. 

Temperatures will drop a few degrees into the 70s for the next few days but some upper 60s will be possible Wednesday with mostly cloudy conditions and some scattered showers or storms.

The main player will be an upper level low that will become cut off from the upper air flow and remain near the region through Wednesday evening.  A secondary disturbance in Texas could provide a few showers or storms across north Texas and southern Ok late this afternoon or evening, but it's the upper air low currently to out west that will linger for the next 48 hours.

The convective potential factor will be increasing greatly later today across the western half of the state with CAPE values reaching the 3500 levels with point soundings near Tulsa indicating values near 2500 j/pkg.   The deep layer shear will not be overly strong meaning a tornado threat, while not zero, will be low. It appears a CAPPING inversion will keep most storms from forming until late this evening, and most, it not all of the storms, will form well west or south of our immediate area tonight.  The threat for strong to severe storms will be confined to later tonight to out west then Tuesday for the eastern OK area.  The current severe weather outlooks can be found in the weather graphics section of the web site. 

 A surface low will be nearby Tuesday morning through Wednesday along with an upper level low that will not clear the area until Wednesday evening.  This should create a few days of storm chances but it appears the remainder of the week looks pleasant but warm.  Morning lows may drop into the 50s Wednesday through Friday with afternoon highs will in the 70s for the rest of the week into next weekend.

The extended models indicate another trough will be near the state Easter Weekend which will necessitate a mention for showers and storms this weekend, but at this point we'll broad-brush pops from Saturday into Sunday, and only at 20% until the data becomes clearer and confidence increases.