From Warm to Warmer

We still have one more day to go, but it looks like March 2012 could end up being the warmest March on record for Tulsa. As of Thursday, we were tied for second place with March of 2007. The year to beat is 1910 where the average temperature was 61.3º. Temperatures are expected to remain well above-normal for the final hours of March so the record is within reach!

Many are wondering if the warm March means an even warmer April (and season to come). Surprisingly, it doesn't. Both the April of 1910 and 2007 were cooler than the preceding month. If we swing back into a more seasonable pattern for April, our high temperatures are more likely to be in the low to mid-70s – cooler than what we've seen for the past week! On top of that, a late freeze can't even be ruled in April. (The latest date in the season we saw 32º or cooler was on May 2, 1909.)

However, April will begin on anything but a cool note. It's no April Fool's Day joke that the first day of the month may also be our first 90º-day of the year! Southerly flow will be increasing in advance of a potent storm system moving in from the west. A plume of very warm and unseasonable air will shoot up through the Plains and bring those readings to new levels for the year with very little cloud cover to temper the warmth. We can't rule out an isolated storm through Saturday afternoon, but any sort of cooling rainfall won't occur until Monday.

Speaking of Monday, eastern Oklahoma might be in for a significant severe weather day as that storm system approaches. There is uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of storms, but the ingredients of unstable air, moisture, and a strong lifting mechanism with wind shear will be coming together. If these factors do coincide Monday, all modes of severe thunderstorms might be possible. It's too early to call it our first big outbreak of the year just yet, but is something to keep a close eye on over the weekend.

One final note: the latest Drought Monitor shows that 2/3 of Oklahoma is completely drought-free! Check out the map above. Some improvement has even occurred out west with just spotty areas of extreme or exceptional drought. More rain is needed out there and more rain next week wouldn't hurt matters in Green Country either.

Have a great weekend and break out the shorts, flip-flops, and sunscreen. It will be practically pool weather over the weekend! Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and "like" me on Facebook!