Very Warm Weekend.

Temperatures so far for the month of March are running nearly ten degrees above normal, and given the forecast for the rest of the month it is apparent that we will easily exceed the second warmest March ever and may threaten the warmest March ever. In case you are wondering, the second warmest March for here in Tulsa was not that long ago; March of 2007. The warmest March in the record books is 1910. The interesting thing about both of those unusually warm months is that they were each followed by an April that was cooler than the preceding March was. Needless to say, that is extremely unusual. April of 2007 had a late, hard freeze and April of 1910 had a late frost towards the end of the month. I mention that for the benefit of the gardeners out there.

Quite frankly, we do not see a big chill coming our way anytime soon, although early next week will see a significant cool front. Although it will be much cooler behind that front, we will still be above normal with respect to temperatures.

Between now and then, look for another day near 80 on Friday, low to mid 80s for Saturday, and mid-upper 80s on Sunday. In fact, some locations could see temperatures near the 90 degree mark before Sunday is over. Our nights will also be extremely mild with morning temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s right on through the weekend.

A weak frontal boundary will make it to near the OK/KS state line later tonight and Friday where it will stall out and become diffuse. Southerly winds should be relatively light on Friday and to start the day Saturday, but a gusty S to SW wind on Sunday will really help to warm things up. The nearness of the front also presents at least a slight chance of a shower or storm for later tonight and on Friday. Right now, the weekend looks to be dry.

The cool front that will arrive on Monday is not being handled with any degree of consistency with respect to the longer range guidance. The GFS is cutting off a storm center aloft right over the state and keeping it around into Tuesday. That solution would provide widespread showers/storms for Monday through Tuesday and perhaps even into Wednesday. The ECMWF on the other hand, keeps the system progressive and pushes the cool front and associated support aloft quickly on eastward. This particular model has been more reliable of late so have trended the forecast in that direction. Thus, the chance of storms with the cold front on Monday followed by clearing skies and milder conditions for the middle of next week.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot