Warm Weather Ahead

A rather quiet pattern will unfold for most of the state over the next few days and I'll keep the discussion on the short side this morning.  

A major upper level low will move across the northern high plains allowing for a surface cold front to extend southward into southern Kansas.  This boundary will be close enough to spark off a few showers and storms along the OK-Kansas state line Tuesday through Thursday, but the coverage is expected to be rather small for our area and manly to the north.  Dick had placed some 10% probabilities on the map from Tuesday through Thursday and I see no compelling reason to deviate from this forecast.  These 10% probabilities will be mainly confined to the northern tier counties of the state northward into southern Kansas.  

Thursday night into Friday a weak upper level vort is modeled to move across the southern plains including Oklahoma.  This should encounter sufficient moisture allowing for some scattered showers and storms Friday into Saturday.  The GFS is somewhat more bullish compared to the EURO (which is no surprise) so we'll keep a slightly higher pop for the Friday period at 30% with 20%s following for Saturday.  At this point in the cycle, the Sunday time period appears sunny and dry.