Warm Weekend, Warm Week Ahead.

Would you believe that, on average, temperatures so far this month are running more than 9 degrees above normal? And since we expect to see our daytime highs on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal from today through the coming week, then obviously this is going to end up as one of the warmest March's on record. Night time temperatures will also be on the rise after starting off in the 40s this morning, we should be in the upper 40s Sunday morning, the 50s Monday morning and near 60 after that. To put things in perspective, the normal temperature range for this time of year is 65/42 for the high/low respectively.

Another way of looking at it is that we have basically skipped the month of March as our temperatures will turn out much closer to April by the time it is all averaged out. At least the recent rains have eliminated the drought situation for much of the state.

As you can see from the forecast, these exceptionally warm temperatures will be with us throughout the coming week. A weak frontal boundary will be dropping into southern KS by mid-week, but there is still some question regarding just how far south it will be able to go. With that in mind, I am keeping our overnight lows close to the 60 degree mark along with light to moderate southerly winds. Also, the nearness of the boundary and the moisture that will be available will produce a little more cloud cover so our daytime highs should be in the upper 70s to near 80. Another limitation to the daytime heating is the rapid green up that is taking place due to the wet soils and warm temperatures. The lush, thick vegetation and the wet soils have a cooling effect known as evapotranspiration. For that reason, I am forecasting our daytime temperatures to be somewhat below the numerical guidance.

Also, the nearness of the weak frontal boundary, the available moisture, and a more zonal flow aloft with weak disturbances embedded is producing a weak qpf signal for much of the coming week beginning Tuesday. Really hate to put a 20% rain chance each day, but at this time frame there is no other choice. The timing of those weak disturbances and the position of the boundary will ultimately determine which days end up having the better rain chances and that sort of fine tuning will have to wait for better data over the next few days.

So, in the meantime, enjoy some beautiful Spring weather, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot