Active Pattern Soon

We're continuing to experience mild and warm conditions with temperatures well above the seasonal averages.  Morning lows will continue to reside in the lower to mid-60s with afternoon highs near 80.  A few scattered showers or storms will be possible for the next few days, but the main focus and concern of the forecast will center on a major storm system approaching early next week.

Abundant low level moisture remains in place this morning across most of the state, but as of this hour (430AM) no significant echoes are detected on the radar.  A weak upper level system will be nearby today and a few scattered storms can't be ruled out.  I'll keep the slight pop (20%) on the panels for today and increase the pop to near 30% for Saturday. 

Later tonight a few storms seem likely across southwestern OK.  A few of these may be severe, and could move into the central part of the state by dawn Saturday morning.  Operational models don't bring a large amount of QPF into the region, but a few showers or storms are possible this weekend.  The NSSL4kWRF has continued to indicate this solution for the short term.

The extended models (both GFS-EURO) are suggesting the main upper level system will approach the area Sunday evening into Monday before slowly considerably.  The low will become cut off the flow and may stay near the state for most of the week and will have the potential for heavy rainfall and some severe weather for the region.

Monday the higher pops for the morning hours may reside to our west before the chances ramp up Monday afternoon and evening in eastern OK.  Tuesday the system should be very close to eastern and all available data indicates the potential for training echoes capable of heavy rainfall and some flooding.

 The EURO continues to offer a slightly more progressive nature with the system compared to the GFS.  The EURO would take the H5 cut off to southwestern Missouri by Wednesday, while the GFS doesn't kick the low out into southwestern Missouri until Thursday evening.  I'll more than likely keep a healthy pop for Wednesday while knocking the chances down a little for Thursday.