Spring Time!

A warm and breezy afternoon is expected with highs in the lower to mid-80s.  A few isolated storms are possible tomorrow.  A few more storms may also be possible Thursday through Saturday as abundant low level moisture will be present across the area while weak upper level impulses arrive nearby.

We note a few clouds this morning across north Texas that may move into the area this morning.  South winds in the 10 to 20 mph range will be likely this morning.  Point soundings from yesterday indicated the possibility of some morning stratus across the region today.  This remains a possibility but we expect mostly sunny conditions this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid-80s.  Raw NAM data indicate highs in the lower 80s today but LAMP numbers and MOS seem to be a little closer to reality and we've nudged the temps up a few degrees from the raw NAM suggestions.   Computer numbers place Tulsa at 85 with some upper 80s possible near Stillwater and lower 80s along the OK-Ark State line.  We'll stick with a 84 on the map today along with gusty south winds from 10 to 20 mph.

All available model guidance indicates a few weak upper level impulses traveling in the southwest flow aloft bringing the chance of a few isolated storms into the region.   The signal is present for a few organized storms Thursday morning across southern Kansas and northern OK.    This pattern will remain through the weekend with a slight chance of storms along with warm afternoon highs and increasing moisture.  Our main feature of interest will arrive early next week.

Extended data has been consistently bringing a major trough into the four corners region early next week that will increase our storm chances.  South winds from 15 to 25 mph blowing across the Gulf of Mexico for several days will set the stage for a heavy rainfall and/or severe weather event next week as the system draws near.  The GFS is typically faster than the EURO and would bring healthy storm chances into the area Tuesday while the EURO would hold off until Wednesday or Thursday.  Spring breakers would need to keep abreast of this developing system early next week.