High Fire Danger, But Rain is on the Way.

A high fire danger is the primary concern over the next few days as the dormant vegetation, gusty winds, low humidity levels, and warm temperatures all combine to create a hazardous situation with respect to wildfires easily getting out of hand. In fact, a Red Flag Fire Warning has been issued for that very reason.

The dryness of the air is evident by how cool we were to start the day as many locations were at or below freezing again. This afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach the mid-upper 60s which is well above normal for this time of year. Also, our winds will increase from the W and then the NW as the day wears on to 10-20 mph along with some gusts to 25 or so. Minimum relative humidity levels will be dropping to the lower 20% range and possibly even into the upper teens.

The winds will be settling down tonight and a light NE wind along with temperatures back down into the 30s is expected to start the day Monday. But, by afternoon a SE wind increasing to 10-20 mph will create dangerous fire weather conditions once again. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be near 70 and relative humidity levels will be dropping to the upper 20% range….still a dangerous situation.

Tuesday will see even stronger southerly winds with wind gusts expected to be near 40 mph at times during the day. That will eventually bring in more moisture so the humidity levels will be climbing, but the strength of the winds will still create problems. Much above normal temperatures will also prevail through Wednesday.

Wednesday is when things start changing and the most recent guidance continues to point to what has the potential to be a very wet system for the state. Notice the QPF map on the right valid through Friday morning. An inch or more of rain is expected to be widespread and not just on our side of the state but more importantly for the drought stricken western counties as well.

Scattered showers and some thunder will be possible on Wednesday but Thursday still looks to be the wettest day of the coming week. Widespread rain with embedded thunder should produce generous rainfall totals and the more NE surface wind will also cool temperatures back into the 50s. This does not presently look like much of a severe weather setup, more like a heavy rain setup, but that is certainly subject to change.

Also, the upper level storm system responsible for this wet period is now expected to hang around for a few days longer, but the guidance beyond Thursday is still inconsistent. For now, will maintain mostly cloudy skies, cool weather, and at least a chance of lingering showers through Friday and into Saturday. But, that is all subject to change as the exact track of the upper level system is difficult to determine this far in advance.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot