Cooler Today

The cold front is moving rapidly through the area this morning and much cooler air will follow this boundary.  Afternoon readings will be in the lower to mid 50s today with northwest winds from 15 to 30 mph.  A mix of sun and clouds will be likely.  A dry but cool Saturday will be expected. 

We have dodged a major system.  

 Overnight a strong upper level system induced a surface area of low pressure to form and move across Northeastern OK.  A warm front moved northward into southern Missouri with most of Eastern OK in the warm sector.  Dew point temperatures in the lower to mid 60s were common earlier this morning along and east of highway 69-75 creating a potentially volatile situation if storms could manage to form.  Elevated storms formed north of the boundary on the cool side around 1AM and moved into Missouri and a few showers and storms attempted to form along and ahead of the boundary across Eastern OK.  As of this hour (3AM) the cap (layer of warm air aloft) is suppressing any significant convection across Eastern OK.  Short term model data supports this solution and we'll be able to remove any mention of thunderstorms from the forecast by the 6am hour.  Our neighbors to the east may see a few storms between 5AM and 7AM as the front rockets across Western Arkansas.  Unfortunately it appears a large portion of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region will experience another major severe weather outbreak today.  The system that is moving across our area early this morning will erupt with thunderstorms this morning to our east.  Later this afternoon and evening the parameters will come together for significant severe storms, including the possibility of long track tornadoes, across a very large portion of the nation from Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky, and part of West Virginia. The current data would support the higher tornado threat across part of Tennessee and Kentucky.  

Our weather this weekend will be dry but cool.  Saturday morning dry air and light winds will allow temps to drop into the lower 30s for some locations.  A light freeze may be possible in some of the sheltered valleys of northern OK.  Afternoon highs will move into the lower 50s with northwest winds Saturday afternoon resulting in a rather cool Saturday. 

A warmer Sunday will be likely with highs in the mid 60s before we move back into the lower 70s Monday and Tuesday. 

The extended data (both GFS-EURO_ indicate another system approaching around Wednesday or Thursday.  The timing of this deal will continue to flip around in the data, and we'll not get too fancy at this point.  We'll keep a slight pop for Wednesday and a higher pop for Thursday.