Improving Weather

We expect mostly sunny and mild conditions today with highs in the upper 60s near 70.  West to northwest winds will be likely in the 10 to 20 mph range. 

The storm system responsible for severe weather across part of the area late last night and early this morning is now east of the area.  We'll be in good shape today with highs near 70 with west to northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph.  Sunshine will be abundant but a thin layer of dust will be greeting a lot of folks this morning.  Strong winds blew the dust across the area last night from SE New Mexico.

Thursday will feature strong south to southwest winds with temperatures moving to near 80. The fire danger will be very high Thursday and Red Flag warnings may be needed for portions of the state.

The next storm system will quickly approach the area Thursday night into early Friday morning bringing a very slight chance of showers or storms to the region.  The chance will remain near 20% but if storms can manage to form, they would be severe.  The actual severe storm parameters for late Thursday night into Friday morning are very strong, but the moisture may be too far east for storm formation.  Buf soundings from the NAM indicate SBcape near 1800, SWT near 470 and Li's near -6. 

The weekend should feature cool temperatures for Saturday with morning lows in the lower 30s and highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Euro data seems to be on the cold side but I've decided to side with the GFS point soundings for Tulsa which would suggest highs Saturday around the mid-50s. 

Sunday morning the lows in the mid to upper 30s will move into the mid-60s with southwest surface winds in the 10 to 15 mph range.

Early next week the pressure gradient will crank up with strong south winds Monday and Tuesday in the 15 to 30 mph range.  Data indicates another front will be nearing the state either Tuesday night or Wednesday with a slight chance of showers or storms.  Most of the data has been slowing down the system with each run and I have pushed the pops just beyond the 7 day planner with Wednesday having the best chance of showers or storms.

The storms produced some wind damage last night across southern Kansas in Labette Kansas.  Our Warn Team member J.D. Stewart reported damage to a few structures with some at least one person being injured.  Very large hail was also reported in southern Kansas with baseball size hail just north of the OK-Kansas state line.

Early reports indicate Branson, Mo may have taken a direct hit from a tornado overnight.  Multiple twitter feeds and radio scanner reports indicate some damage has occurred in the city.  We'll keep you posted as information becomes available.