Fire Danger Today, Storms Tuesday.

Today will start off with an enhanced fire danger due to gusty southerly winds this morning. However, as the day wears on the winds should actually get a little weaker which is just the opposite of what usually happens. The reason is a weak cool front will be moving across the northern counties this afternoon eventually becoming stationary just north of I-40 by early Monday morning. The pressure gradient will weaken as this boundary approaches resulting in somewhat lighter surface winds.

The brisk southerly winds for much of the day today along with lots of sunshine should result in afternoon temperatures reaching the low-mid 60s which is well above normal. Tonight, our winds will be shifting to the N and NE with a more E wind component for much of the day Monday. We will also have increasing cloud cover tonight and mostly cloudy skies for Monday. The air behind this front looks to be a little cooler than first thought so Monday morning will likely start off in the 30s but at least above freezing. Monday afternoon may struggle to get much above 60, if at all.

We should stay dry through the day Monday and Tuesday still looks like our best chance for showers and storms. A few showers and possibly a storm may occur late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Later in the day Tuesday and into the evening/early night time hours will be the best chance and some of those storms will have the potential for becoming severe. We will have strong winds at the surface and aloft and more moisture than was available with the system that came through last week. However, right now it appears that the better synoptic scale lift will be further north and that we will be on the western fringe of the deeper, richer moisture. With that in mind, the more eastern counties and on into Arkansas will probably have the greater threat of showers and severe storms. But, that can change rapidly and parameters will be closely watched over the next few days.

After that, Wed and Thu look promising with lots of sunshine both days and northerly winds on Wed shifting back to brisk southerly winds for Thursday. Temperatures will fluctuate accordingly, but will still be above normal for this time of year.

Another cool front is still on schedule for arrival during the morning hours of Friday. Right now, it appears there will only be a slight chance of rain with this particular system as the better moisture will likely be east of us once again. That will be followed by a return to near seasonal temperatures for a change going into the coming weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot