Great Start to 2012!

Mighty nice start to the New Year and as you can see from the QPF map on the right, it looks like the rest of this first week of 2012 will also be rather quiet. Cannot say the same about the second week though; more about that later.

The high level clouds we are seeing this afternoon should be clearing out overnight and with the much drier brought in by today's brisk NW winds; it will be cooling off quickly. However, we are expecting those NW winds to stay up just enough to keep temperatures from reaching their full potential. Even so, morning lows in the low-mid 20s should be the general rule which is actually pretty close to normal. Also, lots of sunshine during the day Monday along with a NW wind of 10-15 mph should result in daytime temperatures in the 40s. Cool, yes….but that is actually about normal for this time of year.

Tuesday morning should see light winds and fair skies along with temperatures generally in the lower 20s. But, a quick return to southerly winds along with the sunny skies will produce a nice rebound and look for daytime highs back into the 50s. A weak wind shift/cool front will arrive by early Wednesday to provide a brief return to a more W or NW surface wind. But, the westerly wind component and lots of sunshine still means our daytime highs will be well above normal.

Thu and Fri are expected to have a brisk S to SW wind with daytime temperatures soaring back into the 60s and lots of sunshine. A stronger cool front will arrive by early Saturday with northerly winds and cooler conditions then expected for the weekend. More moisture will be available by then so we should see more clouds although the rainfall potential still looks to be very limited at best.

That following week could be more interesting. The flow aloft looks to become more amplified by then which will allow colder air to sink further southward. Just how far south and how cold is still very questionable as is the precipitation potential. There is still not a lot of run to run consistency at those longer time ranges which makes the timing and intensity of a more interesting winter weather pattern difficult at best. At this point, it seems safe to say that we can expect some much colder air to be arriving during that week. Don't have any confidence in anything beyond that though.

In the meantime, enjoy what looks to be a pretty nice week ahead, stay tuned, and check back for updates regarding this evolving, dynamic weather pattern.

Dick Faurot