Nice Weekend-Monday System

The storm system brushing southeastern OK is moving eastward this morning and clouds will begin rapidly clearing from the southwest to the northeast this morning allowing for a mostly sunny day after the early morning hours.  Northeast winds in the 10 mph range will advect in cooler air from the Missouri Valley and highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 in some locations.   

The weekend will be in a holding pattern before the next major upper air system arrives from the west.  This means Saturday afternoon highs in the mid 50s with plenty of sunshine and light southwest winds.  Perfect shopping weather for the last weekend before Christmas!  Sunday also looks good but with increasing clouds by the afternoon.  Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be common this weekend with Sunday afternoon highs in the upper 50s near 60.   

The data continues to support a powerful and closed upper level low moving across the southwestern U.S. Monday and into the central plains Tuesday.  The track of this low is crucial to the precipitation type, but at this point in the forecast cycle, the thermal profiles would support rain and storms Monday across eastern OK with a changing over to snow across extreme northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas.  GFS data would support a possible quick transition to some sleet or light snow near the I-35 areas of Ponca City to northwestern Osage county, but I'm sure this solution will change before Monday.  The more favored area for wintry precip will be the Texas Panhandle region Sunday, extreme northwestern OK Monday, and central Kansas Tuesday morning.  Again, the data will more than likely change a few times before early next week.  A change in the position of the upper level low by 60 miles could have a dramatic impact on our sensible weather.   

Wednesday will be a transition day with partly to mostly sunny conditions and highs in the upper 40s before another fast moving wave brushes the state Thursday.  It appears most of the moisture will reside to our east and only a slight pop will be retained for the Thursday period. 

Christmas:  Conflicting data.  I'll cut to the chase:  I think colder air will be moving southbound next weekend as the two streams attempt to phase for a few days.  If this is the case, an upper level system would be moving across the southern plains around Christmas or the day after.  We'll keep you posted.