Increasing Chances of Rain

With a more unsettled pattern to start the coming week, thought it would be instructive to see how far behind most of the state still is with respect to rainfall so far this year. The map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the departure from normal rainfall up through today. Some of the more western and SW counties are still a foot or more behind on their normal rainfall while just a few of the eastern counties are at or above normal.

We will have a chance for some light showers over the next few days, but Wednesday still looks to be our next best chance to put more of a dent in the moisture deficit. Some light showers have already developed late this afternoon, but very little of that is actually reaching the ground. Even so, a few sprinkles are not out of the question, but with temperatures staying above freezing, no problems are anticipated. A few isolated showers will also be possible on Monday, a little better chance on Tuesday, and a more widespread event for Wednesday along with the possibility of some thunder. Those showers and storms should have ended by Thursday morning as the next cool front will be sweeping across the state by then.

Also, the clouds that moved in this afternoon will be with us through Wednesday; so our clear, cold nights and sunny, cool days will be a thing of the past. In fact, the combination of cloudy skies and southerly winds will result in much milder temperatures, particularly during the overnight hours. By Thursday, cooler air will be filtering back into the state and we should be fairly seasonal with respect to temperatures going into the coming weekend.

However, precipitation going into the coming weekend is another matter. As mentioned before, the longer range guidance is completely out of phase starting on Friday and continuing through the weekend. One set of guidance has us cool and very wet with widespread rain developing on Friday and continuing into the day Sunday. Another set of guidance, has us cool and dry with the rain not coming our way till that following Monday. One of the ways we can express the uncertainty of an event is with the probability of precipitation(PoP). Therefore, have introduced a very slight PoP for Friday and slight chances for Saturday and Sunday as well to indicate there is at least some uncertainty regarding this next event. At present, it would appear that anything that would fall would be liquid. Hopefully, the solutions over the next model cycles will sort these uncertainties out and provide more consistent guidance.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot