Complicated Forecast!

Complicated forecast to say the least....particularly as we get into the early part of this coming week. For today, it is obviously going to be wet with periods of rain and possibly even a rumble or two of thunder as we get into the late afternoon and evening hours. From the 24 hr statewide rainfall map on the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet, it is apparent that some generous, badly needed rains have already fallen on the more western counties and these rains will be spreading on eastward during the day. Most of us should pick up an additional half inch or so before it comes to an end later tonight.

Brisk SE winds through the night has actually resulted in temperatures warming through the early morning hours, but the clouds and more widespread rainfall this afternoon should limit the warming to the upper 50s or perhaps 60. That will change tonight as much colder air will be arriving behind a cold front that should be moving through before midnight. Fortunately, the rain will be ending as the colder air arrives and we should start Sunday morning cloudy, colder, but with only a few lingering rain showers for the extreme SE counties.

After that is when things start getting complicated. A vigorous storm system aloft is sitting over the Southern Rockies and will be sending a significant piece of energy across the state on Monday. Colder air will be in place at the surface with temperatures near freezing across all but the extreme SE corner of the state by Monday morning. This is a prime set up for a significant episode of wintry precipitation, but it is complicated by the uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the system aloft. The numerical guidance has not been consistent in the handling of this system either with solutions ranging from some rather outlandish snowfall totals to no snow at all. Needless to say, that makes for a low confidence forecast.

So, here is a best guestimate of how it will sort out. Look for light rain and showers to be reforming across the southern and SE counties late in the day Sunday and for that precipitation to be spreading northward Sunday night. By Monday morning, some light snow will be possible along and NW of the I-44 corridor with a rain/sleet/snow mix further south. Depending on the track and intensity of the system aloft, the transition zone could shift significantly further SE or NW....there are just too many uncertainties at this time to be more specific. Also, the amount of wintry precipitation is difficult to assess for those same reasons. I would not be surprised if some locations receive anywhere from 2-5 inches, but that figure and the location of the heaviest totals may change significantly as better data comes in over the next 24 hours.

The energy aloft may also keep us with a chance of some lingering flurries into Tuesday morning before it finally moves on east of us. That will leave us with some very cold weather for much of the coming week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot