Improving Temps Through Thursday

It's a Brrrrr morning! Temps are running into the lower to mid 20s in the Tulsa metro.  This is occurring due to light winds, clear sky, and dry air.  The temps will begin a modest warm up today with highs in the mid to upper 50s along with south breezes advancing into the 10 and 15 mph range.  The winds will be increasing tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 50s.  A few 60 degree readings may be possible Thursday before the bottom drops out with another strong cold front arriving Friday morning.  This will set the stage for an active weather weekend across the state. 

The models have been suggesting a strong storm system will move across the southern plains, including a large chunk of Oklahoma and Texas, and provide a high chance of rain.  The big question has been centering on how cold the air mass will be Saturday and the location of the precip as the cold air deepens?   

We continue to be optimistic for the northeastern and eastern Ok area with this system being mostly rain.  We don't think the cold air will be deep enough to support wintry precipitation across Eastern OK until late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.  By the time the cold air arrives, most of the precip will be out of the area.  There may be some light snow flurries or flakes that would be falling pre-dawn Sunday across far northeastern OK or southeastern Kansas, but at this time we don't think there will be a any winter issues across our area of the state.  This may not be the case for our neighbors across the northwestern or western half of the state. 

Model data has been somewhat consistent in bringing the cold air down into NW OK while precipitation is still underway.  This means a cold rain that could change to a wintry mix or some snow by Saturday evening across the northwestern and western part of Oklahoma.   

Rain is likely for the start of the game, but could finish before the game ends.  

The system will be leaving the state early Sunday morning, but the coldest air of the season may be sweeping down the central plains Sunday into Monday, and we should get a small taste of this air mass for the early periods of next week. 

 Bottom line:  mild weather until Thursday night, and then things will head downhill quickly. 

We'll keep you posted.