Colder, Chance of Rain.

Notice the map on the right which is clearly showing a big drop in temperatures that is moving through the state. The map is showing the temperature change over the last three hours as of late this afternoon courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The big temperature drop is due to a strong cold front that is actually running a little ahead of schedule. Obviously, as soon as it arrives temperatures will quickly fall off and gusty northerly winds will make it feel even colder.

There is not a lot of rain associated with the front, but there will be at least a slight chance of showers overnight tonight and into the day Sunday. Some thunder may also occur, particularly for the extreme E and SE counties. Cloudy skies will persist right on through Monday so the lack of sunshine, northerly winds, colder air in place, and chance of showers all adds up to very short thermometers for Sunday and Monday.

The front will stall out over the extreme SE counties so there will be quite a temperature gradient across the state for Sunday and Monday. South of the front, temperatures will be in the 60s and perhaps even some 70s while north of the front, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s. While the surface front stalls out just to the south, a stronger system aloft will be moving out of the southern Rockies and bringing a much better chance of showers and thunder later Monday. The timing still suggests a more widespread area of rain will be spreading eastward late Monday with rain likely for the Monday night and into the early morning hours of Tuesday.

As mentioned in this morning's discussion, there is also the potential for some pretty significant rains by the time it is all said and done. It should certainly put another big dent into the ongoing drought, particularly for the more SE counties. Unfortunately, there will also be the potential for too much rain too fast and localized drainage problems may occur.

The rain should be ending during the Tuesday morning hours, followed by clearing skies. Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day look promising with the exception of the wind which will be strong and gusty from the south just in time for Thanksgiving Day itself. Those strong southerly winds will persist through Friday and will be in advance of yet another cool front. The current timing suggests the cool front will arrive Friday night and will pose a threat of showers and storms by then. Saturday and Sunday should be behind the system with a return to northerly winds and milder conditions.

So, a rather unsettled pattern for the next few days will settle down just in time for Thanksgiving Day itself. As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot