As mentioned in the morning discussion, this is certainly shaping up to be a record setting year for Oklahoma. The list I presented earlier was by no means complete as there have been several other record setting events, but that earthquake certainly got my attention. That was a remarkable experience to say the least.
As far as the weather is concerned, it still looks promising for some widespread, significant rainfall over much of the state which will put a real dent in the ongoing drought situation. A few showers have popped up late this afternoon and showers are expected to become more widespread through the overnight hours, off and on during the day Monday, and not ending till Tuesday evening when a cold front will be sweeping across the state.
Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches still appear likely across the state, with some locations possibly receiving more. See the QPF map on the right. Along with the rain comes some embedded storms and a few of them could become marginally severe with a wind/hail threat. The widespread cloud cover and shower activity will limit the amount of surface heating which in turn limits the amount of instability that can develop. However, the strength of the winds at the surface and aloft could still lead to enough storm organization for some localized damaging winds and hail. The most likely time would be late in the day Monday and more likely Tuesday afternoon as the cold front itself is moving through.
The cloudy skies, widespread rainfall, and S to SE winds also means very mild temperatures. We will be basically in the 60s from tonight through Tuesday and if there are any breaks in the clouds daytime temperatures could still reach 70. The timing of the cold front has moved up a little and is now expected to be moving from W-E through E OK during the early to mid-afternoon hours of Tuesday. Strong southerly winds ahead of the cold front will be shifting to the NW behind the front. That will bring clearing skies and cooler conditions for Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday will be clear with a possible frost/freeze to start the day Thursday followed by a warming trend going through the coming weekend. At present, the longer range guidance is at odds by this coming Sunday with the GFS solution indicating a good chance of rain by then and the European solution much drier. For now, will go with the drier solution and only show a slight chance of a few isolated showers by then.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.