High Fire Danger Sunday

Saturday, October 15th 2011, 9:57 am
By: News On 6

After getting off to a very cool start this morning, our weekend will end with near record level high temperatures on Sunday. That will be followed by the possibility of frost or a light freeze later in the coming week so we are going to have quite a roller coaster ride with respect to temperatures. Unfortunately, not much in the way of rainfall is expected despite the dramatic changes. In fact, the QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map on the right shows our state to be high and dry for the most part. The light amounts shown for the extreme east will be the result of a slight chance of showers or thunder late Monday and Monday night.

For today, a return to a S or SE wind near 10 mph and bright, sunny skies should push our afternoon temperatures into the lower 80s for most of us. Southerly winds through the overnight hours will also result in a warmer start so look for Sunday morning to start off in the upper 50s to near 60. Sunday afternoon will see gusty S to SW winds of 15-25+, low humidity levels in the 20% range, and afternoon temperatures near 90 which is close to record levels for this time of year. This all adds up to an enhanced fire danger for Sunday.

A weak boundary should make it to along the Ok/Ks state line Sunday night but will not amount to anything more than a more E wind component for the overnight hours. Southerly winds will return for Monday but an increase in cloud cover should hold us into the lower 80s that afternoon. A much stronger cool front is still on schedule to arrive late Monday and into the overnight hours. A few showers and storms are expected to be developing for the more eastern counties with the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall in the 20-30% range.

That will be followed by gusty northerly winds and what will easily be the coolest we have been so far this season. In fact, there could be some patchy frost by Wednesday morning and frost and even a light freeze in the cooler valleys will be a possibility by Thursday morning.

Have decided to keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Thursday night as one of the longer range computer models continues to hint at a rapidly moving disturbance aloft moving overhead and it may be able to wring out a few showers. That will be followed by a rapid warm-up in time for the coming weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates as our weather pattern will be having some pretty dramatic swings over the coming week.

Dick Faurot