As Mike indicated in his excellent discussion this morning, much of our state received some significant and badly needed rainfall over the course of the weekend. Notice the first map on the right which shows the soil moisture at the 2 inch level courtesy of the Ok Mesonet. Obviously, the weekend rainfall did wonders for the surface moisture content in the soil, and for the most drought stricken areas in particular. However, this was not a drought breaker although it certainly did alleviate the drought conditions. Notice the second map on the right which shows the soil moisture at the 10 inch level and you can see that the subsoil and by extension the aquifer levels have not been sufficiently recharged to consider the drought over. In fact, we really need at least 3 or 4 more similar events spread out over the next 30 days before we could consider the drought to be over.
So, when is our next chance for rain? Well, we will have enough residual moisture for a slight chance of showers and possibly even some thunder Tuesday afternoon, but our next best chance looks to be on Wednesday. A stronger cool front will be pushing through the state during the day and that should bring with it a decent shot at some additional showers and storms. That will still not break the drought, but any additional rainfall will certainly help.
That cool front will be followed by brisk northerly winds, clearing skies, and cooler nights/mild days for the latter part of the week and to start the weekend. Conditions for the weekend are starting to come into better focus now as the longer range guidance is now in agreement that yet another cool front and potential rainmaker will hold off till early next week.
So, the rains were certainly a blessing, but we still need more and it looks like we will have several more opportunities over the coming week or so. In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.