Windy Today

Thursday, October 6th 2011, 5:12 am
By: News On 6

Very windy conditions will develop this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  A few brief sprinkles may be possible this morning in a few spots. 

The lead wave ahead of the major upper level system to our west is now lifting across the state with clouds and even some brief sprinkles across eastern OK.  A few showers are noted this morning along and west of I-35, but I expect most of this activity to remain west of our area.   

A mix of sun and clouds will be likely this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  The pressure gradient will be very strong today and tomorrow with south winds from 15 to 30 mph.  The fire danger will be enhanced today and tomorrow due to the lack of recent significant rainfall and the strong south winds.  The south winds will be slowly increasing the low level moisture through the weekend as the system to the west draws near the region. 

Our main forecast challenge centers on how far east the rain will move this weekend.

The models are split down the middle:  the GFS brings the rain into Eastern OK Sunday while the EURO keeps the rain across central and western OK.  Both models make sense within the domain of each set of solutions, but obviously both cannot be correct.  Rain will be likely Saturday across western OK.  The Sunday pops for our area will continue to be a toss up with a very low confidence.  We (the team) raised the pops to 40% yesterday, but this still could go up or down during the next day. 

 Temperatures today and tomorrow will stay in the lower 80s with the weekend highs in the upper 70s near 80 due to increased cloud cover.

 The upper air pattern looks active through the end of the month, but I don't see any major cold outbreaks for the next 10 days across the southern plains.  A stout looking air mass may arrive across the central plains in about 7 days, but most of this cold air would stay across the Missouri Valley and the Midwest. I'm ready for some big coat weather, but it's just not in the works at this point.  We'll be closer to normal next Thursday and Friday.