We expect another super weather day across the state with highs in the mid and upper 80s today in advance of another "cool front" that will move over the region early Wednesday morning. The temps will cool down slightly with the frontal passage Wednesday as most locations will experience highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s.
The boundary is expected to slide over the area with no precipitation tomorrow morning, but an upper level system will clip the state early Thursday morning bringing a chance of some rain with a few thunderstorms. This system is not expected to be severe.
The upper air pattern features a strong upper level low developing over the central and northern high plains today. This low will move slowly eastward today and tomorrow while helping to shove the front southward tomorrow morning. The chance for a few showers or storms will occur behind the boundary (post frontal precip) later Wednesday evening into pre-dawn Thursday. The actual placement and coverage of the activity varies from the run to run in the model data and this could play some havoc with the temp forecast for Thursday. Areas near and under the rain shield Thursday morning could stay in the mid to upper 60s for daytime highs while areas outside of the rain shield could move into the mid 70s. I have a 70 on the map for Thursday, which will give me a little wiggle room either up or down for the next forecast cycle update.
The extended forecast will remain dry at this point, but the difference in the position of the main upper level low in the GFS compared to the EURO would support a shot or showers or storms across Eastern OK and western Ark Saturday evening into Sunday.
Both models hint at a possible weak surface low developing Saturday across central OK as it moves slowly eastward. The EURO would support a frontal passage Sunday evening into Monday and I have included the wind shift in the forecast for the Monday period.
We have elected to not include this probability in the forecast for this forecast cycle, but as often stated here, I would encourage you to check the forecast everyday for changes and updates regarding the 5 to 7 day period in the forecast.
Yesterday: 84F in the Tulsa area.
The normal high today is 82F with the normal low of 60.
102F from 1954
39F from 1938
Year to date ( YTD): 21.82
Below Normal: -8.32